I originally wrote this piece for Tehran Bureau which published it on March 4, 2011.
44.5% to 55% of Iran's urban population lives under the poverty line, according to a new report entitled 'Measurement and Economic Analysis of Urban Poverty.'
The paper was presented by three senior government researchers at a conference organized two weeks ago by the national statistics center (Markazeh amareh Iran), under the aegis of several ministries, Tehran University, and the United Nations Population Fund. It was included in a compilation published by the conference, '50 Years of Household Economics,' and made available to the general public on Wednesday, reported the Islamic Students News Agency (ISNA).
The study provides a rare statistical glimpse into the country's economic welfare, a topic generally treated with secrecy by the Ahmadinejad administration.
The authors, Mansour Kiani, Khalil Attar,and Jila Habibi, determined that at least 23.3 million city dwellers are under the poverty line and cannot subsist on their households' incomes. Iran's rural population was not included in the report.
The researchers found that the average poverty line for urban households with 3.7 members is 653,000 toumans (about $630) a month if normal goods are consumed. Tehran province had the highest poverty line, 813,000 toumans a month, while Qom province had the lowest with 523,000 toumans monthly. Using this gauge, 55% of the country's city dwellers are under the poverty line.
The average figure falls to 547,000 toumans a month if cheaper substitutes, for example chicken instead of red meat, are used. In this scenario, 44.5% of urban households live under the poverty line.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's governments, over the course of his two terms, have consistently refused to provide proper statistics concerning poverty, although the 4th Development Plan which was passed into law by the Majlis six years ago clearly requires that the Welfare Ministry issue regular figures concerning the poverty line (article 95.3).
'None of the laws state what should be done or indeed what use it is to know if the poverty line is 100,000 or 400,000 toumans,' then Welfare Minister Abdolreza Mesri told a television interviewer in January 2008. 'Calculating the poverty line is good for the country's planners, but telling the people that if you make 300,000 toumans, then you are poor, only creates mental issues for them and has no other use.'
Mesri's successor, Sadegh Mahsouli, has not been more cooperative. Mahsouli, an IRGC officer who has managed to become a multi-millionaire in between stints in various governments is known as 'Ba-Mahsouli' (roughly translated as bountiful). Before taking the reins at the Welfare Ministry, he served as Interior Minister in the previous administration and, as such, oversaw the 2009 presidential election.
On the eve of the subsidy reform vote in the Majlis, he told Jameh Jam daily last November that the poverty line did not 'have any meaning in our country,' but insisted that the bill being presented by the government would help the poor and 'make the meek more powerful.'
In February of last year, the Welfare Ministry took the curious step of denying the poverty line figure presented a week earlier by the Central Bank.
'Determining the poverty line is one of the duties of the Welfare Ministry, but this ministry has yet to fulfill its obligations,' Majlis representative Sirous Borna Boldaji, who is on the legislature's social affairs committee, told Farda News (close to Tehran Mayor Ghalibaf and not to be confused with Radio Farda). 'Previously it was said that the poverty line was 900,000 toumans, but it is currently being declared that it is 500,000 toumans. Meanwhile, the Welfare Ministry doesn't accept either one of these statistics.'
A lack of hard figures has not prevented government officials from maintaining an optimistic outlook. 'The measures taken by the ninth and tenth administrations (NB Ahmadinejad's first and second terms) have considerably reduced malnutrition and severe poverty in the country,' Seyed Abdollah Emadi, in charge of the poverty alleviation office of the Welfare Ministry, told Borna News in January of last year.
But the authors of the recent report see the outlook differently. 'The conclusions of the poverty model confirm the complexity of poverty and its institutionalization in urban society,' they write. 'It appears that poverty will continue to exist as a social and economic phenomenon, at least over the next ten years.'
The opposition has called for rallies to protest the incarceration of leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi on the 10th of Esfand (March 1). I will not be providing a live blog, but I will regularly post documents and videos related to today's events.
City workers collect large empty trash bins to prevent protesters from setting them on fire, according to RAHANA:
On RAHANA's web site: Mashhad's Ahmad Abad Street has become the scene of heavy clashes between the people and security forces. An eyewitness told RAHANA, 'The clashes are severe. Any more violent and they would be firing mortar shells! The number of arrests is very high. I can say that there have been at least 150 arrests till now.'
This is the first time I'm reading about such numbers of arrests in Khamenei's hometown
Caller to BBC Persian: 'A lot of people were on the north side of Enghelab street. Security forces shot tear gas at us when we reached a crossroads and corraled us into North Kargar Street. Once there, people started chanting. The sidewalks were filled with people.'
Purportedly Shiraz today:
Eyewitness on BBC Persian's call-in program Nobateh Shoma: 'Security did not know what to do. People were everywhere, chanting here and there. The Revolutionary Guards and Basijis started smashing car windows because they were at a loss about what to do. The people have to be thanked for coming out in their cars in such numbers. I'm going home now to freshen up, then go out again.'
Video purportedly of Mashhad this evening:
BBC Persian has posted a video to YouTube, purportedly showing Shiraz this evening. The ability to embed the video has been disabled by the BBC so you have to follow this link to see it.
Unity4Iran has kindly also posted the video. The crowd chants, 'Mubarak, Ben Ali, Seyed Ali [Khamenei]'s turn.':
Banner proclaiming 'Dictator, say hello to the end' hung over Niyayesh Freeway:
And a video of a protester hanging up the banner:
'Honorable army, come towards the nation!':
Eyewitness accounts describe a cat-and-mouse game between security forces and large numbers of protesters who were less inclined to congregate in groups of more than even three or to chant slogans. Security was huge and less inclined to use force unless people stopped moving, congregated, or started chanting. Callers to radio stations and TV stations said that they went out, just to show their presence, but did nothing more because security kept people moving and even closed off streets, telling the people, 'Why do you want to go there? There are no stores there.' Many eyewitnesses spoke of security rushing to places where people had been chanting minutes before, only to hear chants coming from elsewhere:
At least one protester was killed during nationwide demonstrations on February 20 in Iran, according to opposition sources.
Hamed Nour-Mohammadi, a second-year molecular biology student at Shiraz University (I had initially written that he was a fourth-year biology student), was thrown off Namazi Bridge in the southern Iranian city of Shiraz, eyewitnesses said.
Nour-Mohammadi resided at the Dastgheib university dormitory and was a native of Khorramabad, Lorestan province, wrote the opposition Jaras web site (NB He may have been from the town of Alashter, see below). His family is under intense pressure from security authorities to remain silent.
Sources in Iran reported that another protester was shot to death in Tehran's Haft Tir Square, but no details have been forthcoming.
Yesterday's marches were called to commemorate the deaths of two demonstrators, Mohammad Mokhtari and Saneh Jaleh, on February 14.
Update
The semi-official Fars News, close to the IRGC, reported that Nour-Mohammadi was not a protester and that he had died as a result of being run over by a car in a banal road accident.
I came across the following comment on Radio Farda's web site (I've translated it from the original Farsi):
I am a friend of Hamed and come from the same town
Hamed is from Alashtar (NB also in Lorestan province), not Khorramabad
As I'm writing this, I can't even see the computer screen through my tears
My hand is trembling
You mean Hamed?
They killed our Hamed
Hamed I salute you
I salute your sense of honor
[...]
Hamed was a true Green
a true patriot
he loved the sunset over Persepolis
That's why he chose Shiraz University (NB Shiraz is close to the ancient Persian capital of Persepolis)
My Hamed, your friends and I will continue on your path
I can't believe it
Just a week ago you said, I'm off to Shiraz, let me take a photo of you.
Pro-regime Twitter accounts have intensified their activity on February 20 (Esfand 1 in Iranian calendar), a day of protests called by the opposition. The following screen capture shows some of the culprits tweeting the same messages at the same time (From FormoUSAvi to Daghkon). Some of the messages aim to create fear ('Motorcyclists are jotting down our car registration number...) and spread disinformation ('URGENT/ Mousavi arrested + photo'). Others are incitements to violence ('Esfand 1 - a day to demand blood')...
Following the announcement by the Islamic Republic's security forces that a cyber-police squad had been formed, it was interesting to note the recent creation of a dozen pro-regime Twitter accounts.
They're a bit far from properly impersonating independent and grass-roots accounts as the following screen capture shows: identical tweets lauding Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were posted by several different 'users' at exactly the same time.
Yesterday I wrote an article describing the Iranian regime's desperate claims that Saneh Jaleh, a protester who was killed by security forces during demonstrations on February 14, was actually a Basij militia member and had been killed by opponents of the Islamic Republic.
Friends, classmates, and others have denounced what they consider the regime's cynical exploitation of the slain protester. They have posted documents, photos, and now a video clip to show who Jaleh really was: a Green dramatic arts student, interested in writing, who had participated in past protests against the government.
Here is the student film featuring Saneh Jaleh as an actor in some of the opening scenes. The film was apparently banned at the Arts University, which is also shown at the start of the video:
I originally wrote this piece for Tehran Bureau which posted it on February 15.
A day after a university student was shot to death during anti-regime protests in Tehran, a battle is waging for his soul.
Saneh Jaleh, 26, was killed on Jamalzadeh Street, north of Azadi Street which was the main fulcrum of demonstrations on February 14.
News outlets close to the government now claim that he was a supporter of the regime and that he was shot by agents provocateurs controlled by various opposition groups. The regime announced it would organize a funeral procession for Jaleh, from the Arts University of Tehran, where he studied theater, to Tehran University at 9:30 AM, Wednesday morning.
Opposition forces, with Jaleh's friends and classmates at the forefront, are leading a counter-offensive to prevent what they see as the cynical exploitation of the slain protester. They have called on all those who oppose the appropriation of Jaleh by the government to convene at the Arts University near Vali Asr crossroads half an hour earlier.
'He was definitely not a Basij member,' said Hatef Soltani, one of Jaleh's friends and former fellow students who accepted to speak on the record by telephone, referring to the pro-regime militia which has employed violence to subdue previous rallies. 'He participated in past demonstrations, particularly on Ashura,' added Soltani. 'He managed to escape harm that day, but this time...'
Until yesterday, the last major protest in Iran took place on Ashura (the commemoration of Imam Hossein's martyrdom), 27 December 2009.
Asked why he was ready to divulge his own name and possibly endanger himself, Soltani simply said, 'Well he was also a human being who is no longer with us, come what may.'
The barrage of what appears to be a well-orchestrated disinformation operation is reminiscent of the regime's attempts to blame anyone but its security forces for the death of Neda Agha Soltan during the unrest of 2009. In June of that year, state media and semi-official news outlets like Fars made unsubstantiated accusations against a broad group of likely culprits that included the CIA, the Mujaheddin Khalgh Organization, the Greens themselves and BBC correspondent Jon Leyne. The regime also widely distributed an edited interview showing Agha Soltan's father saying that his daughter was not a member of the Green movement.
The photo of Saneh Jaleh used by official and semi-official outlets close to the government -- stern and glum with a short beard -- does not quite correspond to the rakish young man with a mischievous glint in his eyes that appears in numerous candid shots that his friends have distributed.
Similarly, Jaleh's background does not quite mesh with that of a Basij member or government supporter. He was in his third year of studies in the field of dramatic arts at the faculty of cinema and theater at Tehran's Arts University. He was also interested in writing fiction, according to Soltani, and published at least one short story entitled 'The Bus' in Azma magazine, which has been accused in some quarters of being a part of the 'soft war' against the Islamic Republic. He was a native of Kurdistan province and was a Sunni. 'I think he was from the town of Bijar or Paveh,' said Soltani. 'In any case, he spoke both Turkish and Kurdish.'
'He was not what you would call an active militant in politics (mobarezeh siassi), but you have to be somehow political when you engage in protests' said former fellow theater student Soltani. Jaleh's opinions led him to accompany his university's student association on a visit to the late dissident Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, who spent a good portion of the past 20 years under house arrest in Ghom.
The progression of the official presentation of Jaleh from devout student to regime sympathizer to full-fledged Basij militia member has left a trail on cyberspace, implicating news agencies, the head of the Arts University of Tehran, and the Basijeh Daneshjouyi (Student Basij organization).
The Arts University's public relations office released a cautious statement on Jaleh's death early in the day, saying that it was with a 'heart filled with sorrow and pain' that it had to announce 'the martyrdom of Saneh Jaleh, one of the dear and devout children of this university.' The statement went on to say, 'We will not rest until the agents and instigators of this savage act are identified.'
Towards noon, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) spoke of Jaleh as a 'martyr who was killed yesterday during the riots of the seditionists,' a catchphrase for those who oppose the regime. Although Hadi Ghassemi, in charge of public relations for the Student Basij, was quoted in IRNA's report, he never said that Jaleh was a Basij member. IRNA added, 'Jaleh was a guardian of the Qoran and a religious person and was considered a supporter of the regime.' The article planted the first seeds of the scenario that the regime would be promoting: 'This young man was killed with a bullet fired from a small arm.' In the case of Neda, the regime's news agencies insisted that the bullet which killed the young woman came from a weapon which is not used by the Islamic Republic's security forces.
Fars News, close to the IRGC, also quoted Hadi Ghassemi around noon, but this time the Student Basij spokesperson had more to say. Jaleh had been 'the target of a direct shot from the Monafeghin (hypocrites) terrorist groupuscule,' said Ghassemi, using the regime's term for the MKO.
By early afternoon, the president of the Arts University, Saeed Kashn Fallah, was quoted by Tabnak news, close to former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezai, and Fars News as saying that 'Jaleh was a third-year student of theater at the Arts University, who was killed by terrorist agents of the Monafeghin during the illegal gatherings in Tehran yesterday.' He added, 'Jaleh was a Basiji student and guardian of the Qoran at the Arts University.' Tabnak concluded the piece by writing, 'The Monafeghin terrorist groupuscule also targeted four other fellow citizens with direct gunshots. They are being treated in hospitals.'
By this point in the day, contrary voices were being raised to denounce the regime's campaign to exploit Jaleh and to invite the people to pre-empt the official funeral service on Wednesday morning. 'The height of shamelessness,' one Internet user wrote on the Balatarin news aggregator. 'Our next meeting... tomorrow to bury Green martyr Saneh Jaleh,' wrote blogger Arezooabedini. It was time for the official news outlets to go to the next level.
Fars News, which has been known to make creative use of Photoshop, published what it purported to be Saneh Jaleh's Basij membership card at 2 PM. But some inconsistencies in the document were quickly pointed out by Internet users. Blogger Irandust2000 wrote that the stamp on the photo bore the name of the town of Paveh, but that the back of the card had a postal code for Tehran. Irandust2000 said that the postal codes on the back of Basij cards correspond to the city where they are issued and that this discrepancy indicated that the individuals who had prepared the document had not waited for a proper Basij card from Paveh to be sent to Tehran. Also, the alleged card which had been supposedly issued 3 years ago had a higher serial number than those issued 2 years ago. Bloggers posted scanned images of genuine Basij cards from two years ago to prove their point.
Soltani and other friends of Jaleh have set up a Facebook group called 'Green martyr Saneh Jaleh' to protect the memory of their slain comrade and to provoke a popular backlash.
Though the most immediate task of the group is to invite people to convene at the Arts University funeral service tomorrow to prevent the regime from burying Jaleh as a Basiji, one member posted another request.
'I read the words of [Arts University president] Saeed Kashn Fallah,' he wrote. 'Friends of the university community! Let us begin housecleaning from the university and [...] demand the removal of this un-chivalrous character (najavanmard). Let us take this step in our own home, until we take the next ones.'
The opposition has announced its intention to demonstrate on 14 February 2011 (25 Bahman in the Iranian calendar). I'll be regularly updating this scrapbook to provide an overview of events and to give an idea of the mood in the country today. Please be advised that the times quoted reflect the moment that I became aware of an event or wrote it down, not necessarily the hour at which it occurred. I have tried to only post information and video clips which are credible. Although there is now a great volume of footage and photos showing extensive protests around Tehran (and other cities and towns in Iran), I have only posted those that appeared to be from today with a very high degree of certainty. One of the slogans of the day was 'Mubarak, Ben Ali, Nobateh Seyed Ali' (...Seyed Ali's turn) referring to the former presidents of Tunisia and Egypt, and Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei.
Other outlets such as Enduring America and Tehran Bureau will post what I expect to be more detailed live blogs in English.
3:20 AM Tehran time - 11:50 PM GMT Tehran
I cannot remember demonstrators continuing their street protest into the late hours during previous rallies (perhaps an astute reader will correct me on this), but for whatever reason (calls to learn from the Egyptians and not relinquish the streets to security forces?), Iranians continued their protests as night fell. Here are a few videos purportedly from this evening.
Demonstrators chant 'Independence, freedom, an Iranian Republic' -- a deliberate twist on the revolutionary slogan which ended with 'Islamic Republic' -- as a bonfire burns under a pedestrian bridge.
Cars honk in support as protesters chant around a trash can that has been set on fire:
Traffic at a standstill, while demonstrators shout 'Death to Khamenei' and 'I will kill the one who killed my brother.'
3:15 AM Tehran time - 11:45 PM GMT Tehran
Protesters shout 'Mubarak, Ben Ali, Nobateh Seyed Ali!' on Azerbaijan Street, south of Azadi Street:
3:00 AM Tehran time - 11:30 PM GMT Tehran
Seyed Mohamad Marandi, professor at Tehran's University's Institute for North American and European Studies, was at it again. Famously referred to by Fareed Zakaria as a 'mouthpiece for a dying, repressive regime' during a tense interview on CNN's GPS and grilled on Al Jazeera for callously supporting the execution of Arash Rahmanipour, 19, and Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani, 38 (the two men were tried for waging war against God during the regime's infamous show trials), Marandi was in the warmer embrace of Russia Today tv channel this evening. He told the station's journalist that 'the Islamic Republic of Iran is highly popular' and that the protesters today were 'no more than a few hundred':
11:10 PM Tehran time - 7:40 PM GMT Tehran
Compelling evidence that the protests continued into the night (and may still be going on, according to some reports). One of the ways to confirm the date of a video is to listen to the slogans being chanted. This clip features today's favorite phrase: 'Mubarak, Ben Ali, Nobateh Seyed Ali!' (...Seyed Ali [Khamenei's] turn). One protester screams out, 'This is the rage of the people!' This looks like it was filmed in one of the city's main thoroughfares, Azadi Street:
11:00 PM Tehran time - 7:30 PM GMT Tehran
Video shows a regime supporter in unfamiliar territory as he tries to boss protesters around and gets a beating for his efforts. This clip is the prelude to another one below (where the poster bearing photos of Khomeini and Khamenei is burned):
10:45 PM Tehran time - 7:15 PM GMT Tehran
'Seyed Ali's turn,' mutters the cameraman, referring to Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei. It seemed this was the theme for much of the day. 'It looks like a war zone,' the cameraman says as he looks upon streets strewn with burning debris:
9:10 PM Tehran time - 5:40 PM GMT Tehran
It is quite likely that this video was shot today as the protesters reject the Islamic Republic's allies in the region and underline their kinship with the people of Tunisia and Egypt: 'Neither Gaza, nor Lebanon! Tunisia, Egypt, and Iran!'
9:00 PM Tehran time - 5:30 PM GMT Tehran
Another video, purportedly from today, showing protesters tearing down a poster of Khamenei. The 'Mubarak, Ben Ali, Seyed Ali [Khamenei's] turn' chant can be heard in the background:
8:30 PM Tehran time - 5:00 PM GMT Tehran
Video showing protesters burning Khamenei's picture in the middle of the street. It is highly likely that this clip was filmed today as the poster is promoting 'Neshasteh Basirat,' loosely translated as 'enlightenment gathering.' A series of these types of ideological/propaganda conferences are organized during the ten days of official celebrations which lead up to the anniversary of the 1979 revolution on February 11. We can also hear the crowd chanting 'Mobarak, Ben Ali, Seyed Ali [Khamenei's] turn.' As explained below, the chants may have been added to an old video, but this does not appear to be the case:
8:10 PM Tehran time - 4:40 PM GMT Tehran
Opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi's web site has issued a photo showing a police van blocking his alley to prevent him from leaving. The site reports that Mousavi's bodyguards were told he could not leave. Mousavi then tried to obtain his car keys in order to drive to the protests, but was rebuffed. He and his wife, Zahra rahnavard, then decided to leave on foot, at which point the police van was driven into the alley to seal off the exit:
7:30 PM Tehran time - 4:00 PM GMT Tehran
I can conclusively identify where this next video, showing protesters chanting and burning garbage cans, was filmed. Towards the end we get a glimpse of Shahriar Hospital's sign.
This clinic is situated at the corner of Karun and Azarbaijan streets, about 2 kilometers northwest of Khamenei's offices, and about 2 kilometers east of Azadi Square:
7:15 PM Tehran time - 3:45 PM GMT Tehran
Video purportedly showing protesters chanting 'Political prisoners must be freed' near Enghelab today. They are dispersed with tear gas:
6:25 PM Tehran time - 2:55 PM GMT Tehran
Another video, purportedly from Enghelab Street today ('Death to the dictator!'):
6:20 PM Tehran time - 2:50 PM GMT Tehran
Photos of the heavy security presence in Tehran today:
5:55 PM Tehran time - 2:25 PM GMT Tehran
An amazing video. If authentic, it shows the first massive protest in Tehran in over a year. The only thing that makes me consider that it is possibly credible is the chant that can be heard: 'Mobarak, Ben Ali, nobateh Seyed Ali!' ([Hosni] Mobarak, [Zeinolabeddine] Ben Ali, Seyed Ali [Khamenei's] turn!) But was the chant added to an old video? I'm afraid I can't say. Update: This clip does not feature today's protests and was deliberately doctored with the sounds of today's chants. I'm keeping it as a reminder that rumor and falsehood can be the by-products of a closed society like the Islamic Republic:
5:50 PM Tehran time - 2:20 PM GMT Tehran
Video purportedly of Sharif University protest today:
5:35 PM Tehran time - 2:05 PM GMT Tehran
Cries of 'death to the dictator!' can be heard over the mobile phone of an eyewitness in a Tehran street. Another slogan I personally heard: 'Mobarak, Ben Ali. Nobateh Seyed Ali' (Mobarak, Ben Ali, now Seyed Ali [Khamenei's] turn.) I also heard: 'Nezami joda sho, ba mellat hamseda sho.' (Military separate [from the regime], join the people's voice).
Another opposition news outlet hacked? Daneshjoo News appears to be down.
5:30 PM Tehran time - 2:00 PM GMT Tehran
Portions of the police radio recording discussed previously have been posted on the Net:
5:20 PM Tehran time - 1:50 PM GMT Tehran
Reports of large numbers of people coming out into the streets, but scattered for now. More reports of burning garbage cans from the Ferdowsi square area. Many Basijis around Enghelab Square. Roads have been closed off by security forces, but passengers are getting out of their cars and walking towards squares and roads around the Imam Hossein-Azadi axis.
5:05 PM Tehran time - 1:35 PM GMT Shiraz
More reports of protests and clashes in Shiraz.
Isfahan
Reports of demonstration in Enghelab Square.
Tehran
Mobile telephone service has been cut in parts of Tehran, according to sources in the city. There are increasing reports of clashes and protests around the city, though no convincing videos have been posted yet. ePersian radio broadcast what was purported to be Tehran police radio dispatcher: '5,000 to 6,000 protesters going from Vali Asr towards Enghelab... They're chanting pretty sharp slogans.'
5:00 PM Tehran time - 1:30 PM GMT Tehran
Video purportedly showing large number of Basij security forces on motorcycles driving towards sensitive spots in Tehran:
4:15 PM Tehran time - 12:45 PM GMT Tehran
ePersian radio's reporter on the ground reports: Tear gas fired, protesters have lit garbage cans on fire, motorcycle-riding security forces, protesters beaten between Enghelab and Azadi squares.
Shiraz
Protesters near Mollah Sadra and in Shiraz University.
3:55 PM Tehran time - 12:25 PM GMT Tehran
Hacker vs. Hacker
The opposition Saham News web site (Karroubi's outlet) was hacked, but is back online (see screen capture of Saham News homepage minutes before coming back online). The new cyber-police force in action? Update: I'm told the site is offline again.
3:30 PM Tehran time - 12:00 PM GMT Tehran
Video, purportedly from today, showing a group of motorcycle-riding security forces, possibly Basij:
3:15 PM Tehran time - 11:45 AM GMT Tehran
Some sources claim a sit-in is being organized in Imam Hossein square.
3:00 PM Tehran time - 11:30 AM GMT Tehran
Contradictory reports about the Interior Ministry having issued a permit for today's protest. Some serious outlets like BBC Persian have reported that the Interior Ministry has finally issued such a permit (some sources say this was done after the intercession of Turkey's President Gul who is visiting Iran today). The news is serious enough for IRNA to have reacted immediately with a denial from Deputy Interior Minister Mahmoud Abbaszadeh Meshkini, who accused the BBC of making trouble. Update: Foreign Ministry source claims permit was issued to appease Turkish President Gul, but some security outlets are denying this in order to dissuade people from demonstrating, a caller tells ePersian radio.
2:40 PM Tehran time - 11:10 AM GMT Radio watch
ePersian radio: The usual coterie of regime supporters are phoning the call-in program to insult host Saeed Ghaem Maghami. Ghaem Maghami responds by saying to one of them, 'You may hate me, but I love you, sister, and I'll definitely see you in Tehran.' Callers report disturbances in Naziabad district, Azadi Square, and Sadeghiyeh.
Radio Farda: Caller says he is a veteran and brother of a martyr of the Iran-Iraq War. Says he will be present on Azadi Street today. Mir Hossein Mousavi senior adviser Ardeshir Amir Arjmand: 'Today's peaceful protest will be a test for Iran's armed and security forces.'
2:30 PM Tehran time - 11:00 AM GMT Tehran
Initial videos appearing on the Internet and purporting to be from today do not appear authentic. Weather in Tehran is brisk today, but protesters in this clip are not dressed warmly:
2:15 PM Tehran time - 10:45 AM GMT Tehran
I tweeted these updates earlier:
- Etemad Melli Party spokesman (Mehdi Karroubi's party) Esmail Gerami Moghaddam declared, 'According to the constitution, the February 14 demonstration does not require a permit from the Interior Ministry.'
- The state TV web site is still down, apparently the victim of a denial of service attack. The hacker group Anonymous had announced it would wage such attacks in a video released late last week.
- In an attempt to keep people from demonstrating, the government has told civil servants that they can benefit from overtime by staying at their desks until 6PM today.
2:00 PM Tehran time - 10:30 AM GMT Tehran
Reports of people massing in Tehran's Sadeghiyeh district, north of Azadi Square.
Earlier today (8:30AM Tehran time), a protester climbed a crane near Chahar Raheh Ghasr, hoisted flags, and held up photos of 'martyrs.' He/she threatened to jump off if security forces attempted to apprehend him/her.
Two suicide bombers killed at least 30 people and injured 55 in a mourning procession in Chabahar on Wednesday morning, according to news reports in Iran.
The Jundullah armed group, which was designated by the U.S. as a foreign terrorist organization in November, took responsibility for the attack in a statement posted to the Internet today.The group published photos of two young men wearing explosives vests and purported to be the suicide bombers, who were identified as Seifolrahman Chabahari and Hessan Khashi. (This blog will not post the photos glorifying the suicide bombers) The statement said that the attack had been carried out to avenge the Islamic Republic's execution of Jundullah's leader, Abdol Malek Rigi, in June of this year.
Information from official sources was confusing, at times contradictory, in the immediate aftermath of the bloody attacks which took place between Farmandari Square and Imam Hossein mosque in this balmy port with a free-trade zone on the Gulf of Oman.
Chabahar is situated in the southern fringes of Sistan-va-Baluchistan province which has a large Sunni Muslim population and has been the scene of terrorist attacks by the Jundullah armed group which proclaims that the country's majority Shiites persecute Sunnis. The Interior Ministry was prompt in blaming foreign governments, particularly the U.S. 'The equipment and logistical support of the terrorists indicate that these elements were backed by advanced intelligence services of the region and the United States,' said a statement.
The head of the country's Red Crescent and emergency services, Mahmoud Mozaffar, declared that 36 people had perished, before revising the figure to 31. Some injured victims who were subsequently revived had been counted among the dead, according to Mozaffar. Mohammad Yaghoub Jadgal, the parliamentary representative from Chabahar, told the state news agency IRNA that 50 to 60 injured had been transferred to hospitals.
The following video shows security forces and emergency workers in the area, shortly after the attack:
Witnesses spoke of two explosions in front of Imam Hossein Mosque on Imam Boulevard that cuts the city in two, along an east-west axis. The city's predominantly Sunni population worships at the much larger Jameh Mosque, a few blocks to the east. The attacks came on one of the holiest days, Tasoua, of one of the holiest months, Moharram, of the Shiite calendar. The first ten days of Moharram are devoted to mourning the martyrdom of Imam Hossein, one of the most revered figures in the Shiite faith, culminating in the commemoration of Ashura tomorrow.
Today's attack took place in the official mourning procession of fishery workers and their families, according to Mehr News.
Deputy Interior Minister in charge of security Ali Abdollahi told reporters that two bombs went off in close proximity between 10:00 and 10:30 AM, but subsequent news releases said that one of the two blasts was an acoustic bomb. It now appears that the latter conflagration was from the detonator of a second explosive device that did not go off.
Local intelligence and security sources informed Mehr News that three assailants had been involved and that the 'main instigator' had been arrested, while another had been killed when his explosives vest blew up. Mehr News reported that the third individual had been shot by the police. Chabahar Governor Ali Bateni denied that three men were responsible for the attacks, but he confirmed that the 'main element in the terrorist attack' has been arrested.
The official line slowly emerging from the chatter seems to be that two suicide bombers carried out the attack, that only one succeeded in exploding his device, and that both men are now dead. 'One explosion had a lower toll because the assailant was identified before the blast,' said Deputy Interior Minister Abdollahi in a later statement; 'The individual was identified by the police and shot. But he managed to detonate the device which did not cause much damage.'
Sistan-va-Baluchistan Governor Ali Mohammad Azad told the Islamic Republic of Iran News Network that the 'two terrorists waited along the procession's route because they had not been able to approach the official stand. They were suicide bombers. As soon as the security forces became suspicious of them, the first individual exploded his device, martyring and injuring some of our loved ones. The second individual who intended to blow himself up at the same time was identified by the security forces and shot and killed. Some 30 loved ones were killed and 55 injured thus far.' (see video below)
So no terrorist was arrested? 'Both were killed,' said Governor Azad. 'The second individual's belt did not function because he had been shot. Only its detonator exploded. This second one did not cause any casualties.'
Opposition groups have announced that they will participate in tomorrow's Ashura ceremonies. Last year's ceremonies turned into a bloody protest against the regime, during which security forces killed demonstrators, at least in two documented instances by running over them with police vehicles.
It is unclear whether today's blasts will result in tougher security measures tomorrow.
---
The following is further footage from state television. I apologize for not having the time to translate:
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has unceremoniously replaced Manouchehr Mottaki, the longtime foreign minister of the Islamic Republic, with the head of the country's Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Akbar Salehi, according to a terse statement posted to the presidency's site early Monday afternoon.
Salehi was named the caretaker of the ministry as any change to the cabinet must be confirmed by the legislature before it becomes official. Article 135 of the constitution allows the president to name a caretaker minister for a maximum of three months.
This development may signal a new round of acrimony between Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Majlis. Mottaki reportedly enjoyed broad support in the parliament and had been endorsed by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a televised meeting with the government on August 30. 'If Mottaki is replaced, the president should expect a strong reaction from the Majlis,' Mohammad Karamirad, member of the national security and foreign affairs committee of the legislature, had said around the same time.
The president's office published a two-sentence decree appointing Salehi and a separate short letter thanking Mottaki for his service. No further information or explanation was provided in the statement.
The dismissal appears particularly brusque since Mottaki is currently in Senegal, bearing a message from Ahmadinejad to President Abdoulaye Wade.
Alaeddine Boroujerdi, the chairman of the national security and foreign affairs committee, told Khabar Online's reporter that he was unaware of the news. 'Isn't Mr. Mottaki on a trip?' he asked the reporter. 'You mean the dismissal decree was issued while he was on a mission?'
Boroujerdi directed the reporter to contact Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast for more information.
I have started compiling video, photos, and information concerning protests on Student Day, 7 December 2010, at 3:15 PM GMT. My aim is to give a raw idea of today's events. This should not be considered a live blog. I will update and bring a semblance of organization as the day progresses.
Young Iranians living abroad have launched a campaign called 'Where is my classmate?' to promote awareness of jailed students in the Islamic Republic. Posters show an empty classroom chair. The tag line is reminiscent of last year's 'Where is my vote?'
Sistan-va-Baluchistan University
A declaration demanding the release of all jailed students was read at a candlelight vigil at this university in southeastern Iran. The students also stressed that neither the threat of imprisonment, nor death, would diminish their resolve.
What appears to be back entrance of Amir Kabir University
Protesters sing student anthem Yareh dabestaniyeh man. This song will probably feature prominently in today's rallies. (click here to hear a fantastic new version of the song with an animation subtitled in English)
The song, once again. Then, 'Students would rather die than be humiliated.' Notice security agent at 1:15, talking into a walkie-talkie as he climbs a light post. Later, 'Mir Hossein!' referring to Green leader Mir Hossein Mousavi.
A public circle dance...
Basijis try to disrupt the protest by forcing their way to the center and beating their chests (0:21). Cameraman says, 'Less than fifty [Basijis] keep sticking to the crowd like ticks.'
More footage of a few dozen Basijis staging a counter-demonstration next to the hundreds of green students.
Various student sources report four arrests in Amir Kabir University today. Bagheri and Zowghi (no first names available), members of the university's security forces, were particularly active in clashes against the students. Basijis prevented students from unfurling a poster of Majid Tavakoli, jailed student leader who was arrested here last year.
The following image shows Tavakoli. 'We will never forget you,' read the top two lines. 'We are speaking in the heart of oppression. We shout out, strengthened by our beliefs. We stand alongside each other... Majid Tavakoli, the dignity of the student movement.'
Elm-o-Sanat (Science and Technology) University
A silent protest, which began in what students have started calling 'Martyr Asa Park,' in memory of Kianoush Asa. Asa was killed in last year's anti-regime demonstrations (For more information on Kianoush Asa, click here.)
Entrance of Sharif University
We hear a part of a popular ditty from the revolution. The words have been changed, making Ahmadinejad rather than the Shah the target of the lyrics: Mahmoudeh Khaen, avareh gardi, To in vatan ra, viraneh kardi, Koshti javananeh vatan, Allaho akbar, Kardi hezaran dar kafan, Allaho akbar, Marg bar to, marg bar to, Marg bar to, MARG BAR TO.
Mahmoud the traitor, may you become a displaced person,
You have destroyed this country,
You've killed the youth of the nation, Allaho akbar,
You've put thousands in burial shrouds, Allaho akbar,
Death to you, death to you,
Death to you, DEATH TO YOU!
The demonstrators then chant, 'Honorable Karroubi, come to the nation's aid!' referring to Green leader Mehdi Karroubi. This slogan is followed by 'Coup government, this is your last warning. Iran's green movement is ready to rebel.' Security officers stand, arms folded, in front of the sit-in.
Ghazvin University
(For close-up analysis of last year's protest at this university, please click here)
The students take security officials to task for breaking up their rally.
Security official: It is illegal.
Young woman: Everything is illegal in this country.
Young man: They've turned the university into an army barracks.
Young man: The 16th of Azar (December 7) is not illegal.
Young woman: Today is Student Day. It's our day. It's our day, mister.
Screen blocks view of the entrance of Tehran University...
Technical College (photo courtesy Radio Farda). Photo could be of yesterday's protest.
Zahedan University
Candlelight vigil. One protester holds up a photo of slain student Kianoush Asa. Another shows a sign which reads 'Silence...' A third displays a photo of student Amir Javadifar, killed by torturers in Kahrizak detention center.
Babol University
And now a comic moment... Basiji rally attracts two dozen people, chanting 'Death to England!' and similar slogans, as students file past them without casting a glance.
Gilan University
After Babol, staying in the north of the country. 'Students would rather die than accept humiliation...'
Hamedan's Bou Ali Sina University
Yesterday, green students hijacked the screens of the computers in the common area.
Today...
Enghelab Square, Tehran
Heavy security presence...
Niayesh Highway, Tehran
Green banner proclaiming '16 Azar' (Student Day, December 7)...
Tokyo
Though only a small group of demonstrators in Tokyo voiced their support for Iranian students on December 5, it's an opportunity to hear this version of Lean On Me, by Iranian singer Andy, Jon Bon Jovi, and Richie Sambora...
Athens
Demonstrators congregated in front of the IRI embassy in Greece and protested the presence of Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and the regime's oppressive acts, including the persecution of Iranian Christians.
Tabriz's Sahand University
Student sources claim these photos are of yesterday's official ceremony in which protesting students chanted slogans and held up signs.
'A star in your file = the student's share of justice.' Stars are attributed to dissident students by disciplinary committees.
Student reads flier with photo of Mir Hossein Mousavi.
Students at Tehran University's Technical College defied a security clampdown to stage a protest on their campus on the eve of Student Day, according to videos posted on YouTube by Unity4Iran.
Student Day in Iran, December 7, is different from International Student Day which takes place on November 17. While celebrating student activism in general, the Iranian event is also a commemoration of the slaying of three Tehran University students by the Shah's police in 1953, shortly after the coup that brought Mohammad Reza Pahlavi back to power.
Students organized mass rallies against the regime on this day last year. (For a look at a live blog of December 7, 2009, please click here. For a detailed analysis of one video taken at Ghazvin University, please click here). Reports from Iran indicate that the regime has bolstered security in an effort to prevent similar incidents from occurring tomorrow.
The following videos were taken at Tehran University at approximately 3 PM, 6 December 2010, Unity4Iran explained in an e-mail exchange.
'Ya Hossein, Mir Hossein,' the students chant in support of Green leader Mir Hossein Mousavi. 'Death to the dictator!'
'With God's help, victory is near,' they shout. 'Death to this deceitful government!' And later: 'Students will die before they accept humiliation.'
I originally wrote this article for Tehran Bureau. This is part 2 of a series of two articles, which explore whether Ahmadinejad is a religious fanatic or a populist. Or perhaps a mixture of both. For part 1, please click here.
On July 10 of this year, Panjereh magazine published an interview with Seyed Morteza Nabavi, which was picked up in full the next day by Jahan News, considered close to the intelligence unit of the IRGC. The piece was entitled 'A Deviant Faction is Being Formed Within the Principlist Camp.'
Nabavi is considered a theoretician of the regime whose influence surpasses his official functions within the political organization he helped found, the Islamic Society of Engineers. Though Ahmadinejad is also a member of the ISE, the group supported one of Ahmadinejad's rivals, Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani, in the 2005 presidential race. Nabavi is also close to the Islamic Coalition (Mowtalefeh) Party and the conservative Combatant Clergy Association, not be confused with the reformist Association of Combatant Clerics of which ex-President Mohammad Khatami is a leading voice. He runs the Resalat newspaper and has stated that 'The main concern of Resalat is the ruling ideology.'
Nabavi had this to say about the 'deviant faction' mentioned in the interview's title. 'Young Principlists must be very careful not to fall into this trap. [...] This is a faction whose deviance is plain to see. They say that they have a direct link to the Imam Zaman. They want to put aside the clergy in all matters of religion, law, and politics,' Nabavi warned, before adding, 'This faction of Principlists seeks Principlism minus the clergy.'
It was unlikely that Nabavi had chosen this last phrase by accident. 'Principlism minus the clergy' (osoulgarayi menhayeh rohaniyat) is clearly reminiscent of 'Islam minus the clergy,' a concept made famous by Ali Shariati, a prominent Islamic thinker and considered an ideologue of the 1979 revolution, even though he was at odds with the mullarchy and passed away in 1977 in Southampton, England, before the fall of the Shah. 'Theocracy is a system in which clerics, instead of politicians, assume political and governmental positions. In other words, theocracy is the rule of clerics over the nation. The natural outcome of such a [system] is despotism because the cleric considers himself the surrogate of God and the executor of His affairs on Earth,' Shariati wrote. In another instance, he wrote, '[In Islam], an organization known as the "clergy" does not exist and no one becomes a professional cleric. In Islam, there is no middleman between the people and God. Everyone is in direct contact with Him.' Supporters of the regime will of course argue that Iran is an Islamic republic and not a theocracy.
Without getting into the details or merit of Shariati's philosophy which cannot be summarized in the two quotes above, it should be noted that his blend of Marxism/Socialism and Islamic reformation was extremely popular among the idealistic youth of the period. So much so that in the years leading up to the revolution, and despite numerous fatwas against him, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini did not take an official stand against Shariati. Ayatollah Morteza Motahari, a confidant of Khomeini, wrote the founder of the Islamic Republic a letter in which his frustration is palpable: 'The least of [Shariati's] sins is that he has given a bad name to the clergy. He described cooperation between the clergy and unjust governments against the masses as a general social principle. [In other words, he claimed] that the blade, gold, and prayer beads lie alongside one another and share the same goal.' (The Martyred Sheikh, Sadra Publications, p.39-46)
In his interview with Panjereh magazine, Nabavi was issuing a warning against an idea -- 'Principlism minus the clergy' -- that, while not as extreme as 'Islam minus the clergy,' still had the potential to be immensely popular. So who are the 'deviants,' whom Nabavi spoke of, who would exploit this popular idea?
One indication comes from an interview given by Deputy Minister of Islamic Guidance Mohammad Ali Ramin in September. 'Instead of being active behind the closed doors of political parties, NGOs, or other Western-style institutions, our clergy should return to their mosques,' said Ramin. He tempered his words by adding that he meant that the clergy could restore the central position of mosques in Iranian society and re-mobilize the vitality of the devout population which had stopped going to mosques.
The mullahs however took a very dim view of what Ramin had said. The head of the clerical faction of the Majlis, Mohammad Taghi Rahbar, contended, 'Nobody pays attention to what the deputy minister says. [...] The main goal of individuals making such remarks is to remove the clergy from the [national scene] and take religion out of the government and politics.' When radio host Ahmad Tavakoli (no relation to the Majlis MP of the same name) questioned Ramin about his remarks on a live show, the deputy minister lost his cool and insulted Tavakoli with a phrase that means, 'What the hell do you think you're doing?' (Shoma ghalat kardid...) (Listen to the show below)
Ramin lived in Germany from 1971 until 1994, when he was deported, allegedly for his links with neo-Nazi and far-right parties. He was unknown on the national stage until Ahmadinejad's first term, when he became a presidential adviser, most notably contributing to the president's negationist positions on the Holocaust. He was the organizer of the infamous Holocaust Conference in Tehran, to which he invited old friends from Germany, including Benedikt Frings of the NPD (National Democratic Party). It is doubtful that he would have made the comments about returning the clergy to mosques without the consent of Ahmadinejad, who has yet to chastise him.
Ahmadinejad's aides presented other novel ideas about Islam and Iranian society over the summer. 'There are many takes on the school of Islam, but our understanding of the reality of Iran and the reality of Islam is the school of Iran, and we must henceforth introduce the school of Iran to the world,' said Chief-of-Staff Rahim Mashai at a conference for Iranian expatriates in August. The identity and mythology of the regime is Islamic, the basis for its power has been Islamic, and here was a very senior government official touting the school of Iran (maktabeh Irani), and not even the school of Iranian Islam.
The reactions from regime insiders were swift and unequivocal. General Seyed Hassan Firouzabadi, Armed Forces joint Chief of Staff said, 'We consider such words to be a deviation and a crime against national security and an attack on the values of the sacred regime of the Islamic Republic and the Islamic Revolution.' Regime officials almost always refer to the Islamic Republic and not the Islamic Republic of Iran.
As Habibollah Asgaroladi, secretary general of Supporters of the Line of the Imam and the Leader (a coalition of a dozen parties under the Principlist umbrella), said in response to Rahim Mashai, 'The basis for the Islamic movement and revolution was Islam, and the republic was based on the meaning of Islam. Imam Khomeini, at a time when there was mention of an Iranian Republic or a National Democratic Republic, declared an Islamic Republic, not one word less, not one word more.' And to stress the dangers of forsaking Islamic identity to patriotism or national identity, he added, 'The Imam [Khomeini] tried very hard to make the Arabs understand that as long as they called Palestine Arabic it would come to no good and that Palestine was Islamic.'
'If Rahim Mashai persists in his errors, we will not remain silent in the face of these perverted, nationalistic acts of conjuring schools (maktab-sazi enherafi nasionalisti),' said Ayatollah Abbas Kaabi of the Society of Qom Seminary Teachers and a member of the Assembly of Experts. 'Mr. Mashai's remarks about a school of Iran were all about conjuring up a nationalistic school [of thought] for Islam.'
And therein lies the crux. Nationalism and patriotism are extremely popular in Iran, perhaps more so than religion. Two of the most noteworthy slogans chanted in last years opposition demonstrations were 'Neither eastern, nor western, but an Iranian Republic' and 'Neither Gaza, nor Lebanon. I give my life only for Iran.' The patriotic song 'Ey Iran,' written in the aftermath of World War II, has long been a favorite of Iranians and it has become something of an opposition anthem in the past years. Is it an accident that Ahmadinejad's chief of staff has brought up the idea of a 'school of Iran' so soon after last year's unrest? Perhaps not.
Not only has the president not disavowed Rahim Mashai's remarks, he has endorsed them despite the outcry by conservative clerics and regime insiders. 'What we say is very clear. the government speaks with only one voice. [Rahim Mashai] says the same thing, perhaps with a different vocabulary. Iran has had a singular role in developing a pure Islam. This is not nationalism,' he insisted at a press conference shortly after the incident. He maintained his support in a speech at last month's conference on 'Soft War' -- regime-speak for velvet or color revolutions -- held at Tehran University. 'There are many takes on Islam [...] in the world. The understanding of Islam which is worthy of consideration for us has to be Iranian,' he told the participants. 'We believe Iran's culture and understanding of truth to be the closest to truth,' he added.
Ahmadinejad's feigned crowd-pleasing statements, the Third-Worldism he shares with the likes of Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales, his attempts to gain a holy mantle, while tapping into quasi-reformation and anti-clerical ideology, and the appeals to the powerful social forces of nationalism and patriotism, give the appearance of a cynical, populist streak in the president. Whatever his plans, not many observers believe that Ahmadinejad will simply disappear from the political stage after serving his second term.
The president is not the official head of any party, which would have allowed him to maintain a voice in the Islamic Republic's affairs. He seemed to be addressing this issue at the national gathering of representatives of the Supreme Leader in July when he stated, 'The velayat and the revolution have but one party and that is the velayat party and God's party.' Velayat can be a reference to the Supreme Leader or the rule of the Imam Zaman. In both cases, Ahmadinejad may believe that he can occupy a central position within such a nebulous entity at the expense of the established groups. Certainly, the quick reactions of various political figures showed that that was their interpretation of the president's words. 'The velayat party has no basis in reality and the Imam [Khomeini] and the Supreme Leader have not referred to it even once. [...] Some people are creating disturbances among Principlists and we must be aware of this,' Islamic Coalition Party chairman Mohammad Nabi Habibi was quoted in Khabar Online, a news site close to Majlis Speaker Larijani.
The president may be taking concrete steps to place his ideological stamp on the regime. In August, Jahan News reported that a 'Principlist manifesto' (Ahmadinejadism?) was being drafted and that it would soon be submitted to Ahmadinejad. 'This manifesto, which will provide a clear description of Principlism, will restrict the scope of Principlism to such a degree that individuals such as [Tehran mayor] Ghalibaf and [Majlis Speaker] Larijani will no longer be considered Principlists,' wrote the news outlet close to the intelligence unit of the IRGC. (Ghalibaf and Larijani also ran in the 2005 presidential election, but failed to make it to the second round.) Majlis representative Ali Motahari reached the same conclusion in an interview with Aftab daily, accusing 'Principlist extremists' of devising the manifesto in order to eliminate Ahmadinejad's rivals. Motahari surmised that certain Principlists were taking this step in order to prepare for the next elections.
'It is a pity that the presidency only lasts two terms, because Ahmadinejad's record in this term has been much better than the previous one,' said Mohammad Javad Larijani, Khamenei's adviser and head of the human rights commission of the judiciary, in May. Whether Larijani was attempting to gain the support of the president's loyalists for his brother, Speaker Larijani, or whether he was putting on a show of impartiality, the statement did provoke some discussion about a possible amendment to the constitution. If Khamenei were to consider such an amendment to be expedient, it is quite possible that it would be railroaded through the legislature and Guardian Council.
However, it must be noted that unlike in the US constitution, where the 22nd amendment clearly sets two term limits on a president, the Islamic Republic's constitution says the following on the issue:
Article 114 The President is elected for a four-year term by the direct vote of the people. His re-election for a successive term is permissible only once.
In other words, a former president who has served two terms can run again after a lapse of one term. That is why Mohammad Khatami was able to consider (and reject) becoming a candidate again in 2009 and Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani ran in 2005 even though he had already served two terms in the 1990s.
Some analysts believe that Ahmadinejad may attempt a 'Putin-Medvedev shuffle.' Former Russian President Vladimir Putin handpicked his successor, Dmitry Medvedev, in 2008 when he faced the same type of constitutional restriction. He subsequently became the prime minister and is expected to run for president again in 2012. There have been persistent rumors that Esfandiar Rahim Mashai, whose daughter happens to be married to Ahmadinejad's son, would play the Medvedev role in the Iranian scenario.
As explained previously, Rahim Mashai is not popular among many conservative clerics and portions of the Principlist camp, who managed to convince Khamanei to block his nomination to the post of First Vice President last year. Ahmadinejad enraged his rivals by quickly naming him as his chief of staff, which could not have occurred without the acquiescence of the Supreme Leader. This suggests a certain symbiotic relationship between the president and Khamenei, each considering the other as necessary to advance their own goals.
It would not be outlandish for Khamenei to accept Rahim Mashai in the highest elected office of the land. He is one of Ahmadinejad's closest aides who has voiced many of the same populist positions as the president. He is considered more amenable to some reformist demands and maintains ties to the trendy artistic community. He could therefore bring some of the opponents of the regime back into the fold. If he were to become president, Khamenei would be able to maintain the delicate, yet tense, balance within the power structure and regain some luster as an arbiter.
Furthermore, it would be difficult to disdainfully dismiss the preferred candidate of the Ahmadinejad camp, given the official claims that he garnered 24 million votes. 'Mr. Ahmadinejad and Mr. Mashai have pushed the Principlists into a corner in the sense that they say, [...] We have more votes than anyone else,' Alireza Namvar Haghighi, a political analyst in Tornonto told Radio Farda. 'This is the Principlists' paradox. Either they have to say that these are not your votes or that there was some fraud in the elections. Therefore, they must come to some skewed compromise with [Ahmadinejad and Mashai].'
Ahmadinejad's supporters seem to be laying the groundwork for a Rahim Mashai run for the presidency. In September, Principlist Majlis representative Behrouz Jafari announced the formation of the Justice and Welfare Front (Jebheyeh edalat va refah), a coalition of a dozen pro-Ahmadinejad groups in the legislature. Anti-Ahmadinejad conservative news outlets including Tabnak, controlled by former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezai, and Alef, run by Malis research center head Ahmad Tavakoli, reported that the coalition's main function was to support Rahim Mashai. But the Justice and Welfare Front's secretary general, Hojjatoleslam Amirifar, denied the allegation and added, 'Mr. Rahim Mashai has not even declared that he will be a candidate [in the 2013 presidential race].'
'Some people seem to have an abnormal sensitivity towards Mr. Mashai,' Ahmadinejad said in a recent interview broadcast by the 20:30 news show. 'I have complete confidence in Mr. Mashai. I know him as someone who believes in the principles of the Islamic Republic, the values of the revolution and the Iranian nation. He is a person who believes in the line of the velayat. He is a pure individual.'
Beyond the official political organizations, Rahim Mashai can also count on the support of the President's Young Advisers, a broad network of up-and-coming activists present in various ministries, presidential offices, and provincial governments. Rahim Mashai happens to head this group, one of the dozen or so functions that he fills in the administration. Before the summer, he named Abbas Masjedi as his plenipotent representative within the group and instructed him to 'expand the Young Advisers network throughout all ministries, independent organizations, vice-presidential offices, and provincial governorships by the end of the [Iranian year],' according to the Ahmadinejad administration's news outlet. The president and Rahim Mashai received a rousing welcome at the 4th Conference of Young Advisers on October 10.
A week later, Hamid Reza Afrashteh, Young Advisers deputy chief in charge of provincial affairs, spoke at a gathering organized by Islamic Iran's Group of 72, and compared Rahim Mashai to some unlikely luminaries. 'The Western world began a new life with thinkers such as Adam Smith in the field of economics, Russell in the social sphere, and Montesquieu in politics, and it began developing knowledge. Meanwhile, on this side of the world, we have continued our existence with passivity,' said Afrashteh, according to Afkar News. 'Now that one person [Rahim Mashai] has taken a leap and and has entered the difficult field of developing ideas and turning them into models, some people unfortunately do not tolerate him.'
And while Ahmadinejad and his supporters have advanced their agenda, they have continued to confront their rivals, not only among the Greens, but within the Principlist camp itself. Speaker Ali Larijani has been the main target of such attacks, which have splintered the Principlist faction in the legislature and managed to erode his support within the Majlis.
On Sunday, November 7, Larijani barely squeaked by as the central committee of the Majlis's Principlist faction elected its chairman. Larijani, the incumbent, garnered 25 of 47 votes, while his opponent, Shahabedddin Sadr received 20 ballots. Khabar Online, close to Larijani, falsely stated that he had received 44 votes, while IRNA, the governmental news agency run by former Ahmadinejad media adviser Ali Akbar Javanfekr, correctly reported that the Speaker had won by 5 votes. (Clear election results apparently remain a rarity in the Islamic Republic. An explanation of the discrepancy will be the subject of a future article.) Pro-Ahmadinejad Majlis representative Hamid Rasaee wrote on his blog, 'How will Ali Larijani's "crisis of appeal" end?'
The G-72 web site claimed in an article last month that Larijani supporters within the Assembly of Experts were seeking to modify the constitution so that the president would be elected by the Majlis because 'they know for a fact that it is impossible for Larijani's name to come out of a ballot box, so their only recourse is to change the manner in which the president is elected.' Raja News wrote that Larijani had urged his brother-in-law, Majlis representative Ali Motahari, to try to collect signatures from fellow legislators in order to force the president to come before the Majlis to answer questions about his policies, but had only garnered less than 10 signatures. Motahari had engaged in his nefarious campaign against the president 'at the same time of the son of the nation's visit to Lebanon,' Raja News reported with an outraged tone, before turning to mockery: 'Motahari obtained only two votes in the election for the central committee of the Principlists. Given that he cast one ballot for himself, only one other person voted for him.'
The most noteworthy, and sinister clash, took place when pro-Ahmadinejad goons held a threatening rally in front of the Majlis in June.The Ahmadinejad administration had been involved in a struggle to gain control of the assets of a vast network of universities run by Rafsanjani loyalists. Larijani managed to sway the Majlis vote in favor of the Rafsanjani camp, thereby incurring the wrath of the demonstrators in Baharestan Square, in front of the legislature. One banner lofted by the protesters read 'A thief in the nation's house,' while another insultingly asked, 'Larijani, who the hell do you think you are to go against the Leader's opinion?'
Regardless of his apparently premeditated skirmishes with the conservative clergy and some Principlists, Ahmadinejad has been careful to exude loyalty to Ayatollah Khamenei and the principle of velayateh faghih. His aides and supporters have followed suit. Mohammad Ali Ramin, Deputy Islamic Guidance Minister in charge of the press, who had suggested that the clergy should return to their mosques last summer, had an altogether obsequious attitude towards the Leader's 'historic' visit to Ghom (see video below). 'One of the most beautiful headlines of recent years that I can remember was one that I saw in one of these newspapers a couple of weeks ago, on the occasion of Imam Khamenei's visit to Ghom,' he told a television interviewer (italics are mine). '[The headline] was "Ghadireh Ghom." This was a very beautiful take on "Ghadireh Khom," meaning the people of Ghom had risen up to welcome the surrogate of the Imam Zaman.'
Not only did Ramin refer to Khamenei as Imam, rather than Ayatollah or Supreme Leader, but he compared him to one of the most inspirational figures of Shiite Islam, Imam Ali. It was at Ghadireh Khom or the pond of Khom that the Prophet Mohammad appointed Ali, his son-in-law, as his successor in 632 AD.
But what was on Khamanei's mind as he arrived in Ghom and gave his first speech?
'The debate about Islam minus the clergy... Of course, these murmurs were voiced before the revolution,' said Khamenei (see video below). 'The presence of the clergy in the revolution and their leadership in the revolution temporarily expelled this idea from the scene. But they have started it again. Islam minus the clergy is one idea, and Islam minus politics, the separation of religion and politics, is also among the things that they insist on spreading through the press, in their writings, and on the Internet.'
The Secrets of Khamenei's Life The secret life of Iran's Leader, Ali Khamanei, is exposed by former staff members of the Intelligence Ministry and his household in a fascinating article by internationally renowned filmmaker Mohsen Makhmalbaf... (part 1)(part 2)(part 3) Humiliation even in death Detailed analysis of several videos shows the final moments of a protester run over by a car and the refusal of her body by a medical center... (more)
The banality of evil Shocking footage of a man being lashed in Iran reminds the viewer of what Hannah Arendt called the banality of evil... (more) Provisional list of 72 dead protesters Originally compiled by the opposition committee looking into the abuse and deaths of protesters, the list has been enhanced with photos, video footage, and commentary... (more)
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